Analytical Design—the Wave of the Future

by Mike Anleitner

Current Trends in the Automotive Industry

In the automotive industry, ongoing job losses continue to make news. We think about the plants that have closed, and the hourly workers who have—probably forever—lost high paying jobs that require no more than a high school diploma. However, another trend is also underway, and it’s generally lost in other news. Employment of technical and professional personnel in established companies is falling. And, while data are scarce in this area, this may be happening even more dramatically than blue-collar job reductions.

Test Costs Are Driving Engineering Outsourcing

One very simple fact is driving this trend—the traditional approach to vehicle development, which is based on a design-test-debug-redesign-retest-debug-redesign loop, is fast becoming obsolete. It is simply too expensive, too slow—and too inaccurate. The pressure is on to use testing simply to prove the soundness of engineering calculations and simulations. This means employment for lab technicians, test engineers, and designers will continue to decline. Only the “top thinkers” in the analytical engineering community can expect long-term job security. Moreover, less complex work of this type is rapidly being sent to India, where an engineer with a Masters degree is paid $10,000 per year. This leaves only the highest-level work for the US and other developed nations.

Less testing when recalls are more painful than ever?? Can this be true?? Well, never forget that there wasn’t a single test failure in the most expensive recall in history, the Ford-Firestone Explorer debacle.

The Wright Brothers and the Beginning of Analytical Design

In late 2003, we were bombarded by documentary television about the Wright brothers as part of the 100th anniversary of their flights at Kitty Hawk. I never realized what a tour-de-force their work was until I saw these presentations. Despite little formal education, they spent more time calculating and simulating flight via mathematics than building and testing gliders and airplanes. The most critical testing that they did was in a wind tunnel (something else they invented), which was necessary because their early work with kites and gliders revealed that the existing aerodynamic models and tabulated values were incorrect. The aim of their wind tunnel testing was to determine precise aeronautical design data, not to test a scale-model airplane. So, they really invented something even more powerful than an airplane—analytical design.

Physical Design Driven by Analytical Results

While their aeronautical work was impressive, their work on engines was even more startling. They calculated the power-to-weight ratio needed to move from a glider to powered flight (very accurately, by the way—8 HP, 90 lbs of thrust, and weight less than 200 pounds). They queried engine builders of the day, and none could provide an engine that was even close to their required power unless the weight was more than twice the value that they could allow.

So, they designed and built an engine to meet their calculated requirements! The performance of their engine was nearly exactly as computed. This was the first engine to use aluminum, and it came from a new company (Alcoa). It’s easy to forget that aluminum was more expensive than gold until that very moment in history, but Orville and Wilbur Wright saw the potential and worked out the design issues on paper. By all accounts, they ran the engine just enough to confirm their calculations before their first flight.

No Room for Failure

They encountered very few test failures, which had killed or mortally embarrassed most of their contemporaries including Lillienthal and Langley. Failure wasn’t an option because they knew that even one might be an act of suicide.

Improving Analytical Design In Your Organization

The Wright brothers’ analytical design was the beginning of a very important trend. More than ever, engineers need to be well versed in analytical techniques for product and process development, including Failure Modes & Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Design Verification (DV), Project Management, Engineering & Technical Leadership, and Value Analysis. All of these tools are constantly evolving and changing, and Livonia Technical Services offers training and consulting that can make a difference in your company’s performance.

Send email to m.anleitner.68@livoniatech.com or call me (248-474-2035) if you would like to discuss this or plan a working session in any of these important areas.